I’m searching for any theoretical data of the sport for essentially the most fundamental manner of resistance: Avalon. Particularly, I’m a set of 5 gamers, with solely two added roles: Merlin and the assassin. I’m searching for methods that may be executed with out utilizing psychology, rely, hidden messages (together with, amongst others, cryptography and signature), and so forth.
With out extra roles, that’s, the vanilla model of the unique resistance sport, it’s fairly straightforward to calculate the successful prospects for the rebels if each events play optimally, since it’s 30% (assuming that traitors can keep away from double failure missions with two spies). The nice group principally has three alternatives to determine the spies (or the great group). And so they don’t have anything higher than the potential for trusting, so they are going to select every of the ten doable groups with equal chance, for a complete of three/10 of successful prospects.
By including Merlin, issues appear to be worse for the great ones! If you don’t take measures to assist good gear, it solely reduces your successful alternatives to twenty% (because it has a 1/3 chance of being killed). Should you assist good group, it will increase your successful alternatives, but additionally will increase your probabilities of being killed. Any motion you’re taking, or a press release that makes, that influences the opposite gamers to decide on the suitable group, can even be seen by the dangerous. Assuming that there isn’t any hidden communication, they are going to see every of the statements made and can know who inspired the successful group or discouraged the losers.
So is there any technique for good group that better of 20% on this configuration? The technique have to be identified by all gamers prematurely. Solely to make it completely clear: I’m not asking for methods to “insinuate” your teammates what to decide on, with out the dangerous ones discover or perceive what is occurring.
